US Fed Meeting 2024: Fed keeps interest rates steady as Powell says ‘path forward is still uncertain’

Powell-led FOMC is now set to meet again on March 19-20. This when they will deliberate for the next set of policy decisions.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said rent reductions are coming – although they haven’t appeared in the government’s inflation statistics.

“We know is it is coming,’’ he said. “It’s just a question of when and how big it will be. That is in everyone’s forecast … so that will help’’ in the fight against inflation.

Fed meet live: Powell stated to reporters on Wednesday that it is unlikely that interest rate reductions will start in March.

“Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it is likely that the Committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that, but that is to be seen,” Powell said. “It is probably not the most likely case, or what we would call the base case.”

The Dow dropped by 0.6%, or 211 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.8% while the S&P 500 fell 1.2%.

Fed meet live: While investors had been expecting a rate cut or the start of a rate-cutting cycle at the March meeting, Chair Powell seemed doubtful about the timing of that announcement on Wednesday afternoon.

“Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March is the time to do that,” he said. “But that’s to be seen.”

″[March is] probably not the most likely case or what we would call the base case,” he added.

Fed meet live: Nearly all members of the US central bank’s rate-setting committee support lowering interest rates this year, Powell said, after a meeting that kept rates unchanged but hinted of cuts ahead.

“But the timing of that is going to be linked to our gaining confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path down to two percent,” Powell told a press conference.

Fed meet live: The central bank may need more signs that inflation is easing before it begins “dialing back the restrictive level” and cutting rates, said Powell during a press conference Wednesday.

“The median participant wrote down three rate cuts this year, but I think to get to that place where we feel comfortable starting the process, we need some confirmation that inflation is in fact coming down sustainably to 2%,” he said.

According to Chair Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve is keeping options open while evaluating the future course of interest rates and when to enact reductions.

“Of course, if labor, if inflation were to surprise by moving back up, we would have to respond to that and that would be a surprise at this point,” he said. “But I have to tell you that’s why we keep our options open here and why we’re not rushing.”

While markets have digested six months of good data, uncertainties linger and risks could reaccelerate inflation, he added.

Fed meet live: Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the FOMC has not yet started to consider cutting rates.

“We’re not really at that stage, there was no proposal to cut rates. … We weren’t actively considering moving the federal funds rate down,” he said.

Fed meet live: “We want to see more good data,” Powell said in his post-meeting press conference. “It’s not that we’re looking for better data, we’re looking for a continuation of the good data we’ve been seeing.”

“It gives us confidence that we’re on a path, a sustainable path, to 2% inflation,” Powell added.

Fed meet live: The FOMC used its first meeting of the year to reaffirm its long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, including its commitment to a two per cent average inflation target. Among other changes to the statement, the committee omitted language that had been included in some form since last March, calling the banking system “sound and resilient” and warning that tighter credit conditions were likely to weigh on the economy.

Fed meet live: Powell stated in his prepared remarks that it is likely the Fed has raised interest rates as far as it has to in this cycle of economic tightening. However, he stated such cuts might not be coming soon.

“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” Powell said during the conference.

“But the economy has surprised forecasters in many ways since the pandemic and ongoing progress toward our 2% inflation objective is not assured,” he added. “The economic outlook is uncertain and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer if appropriate.”

Fed meet live: Inflation has decreased recently, according to Powell, but not by enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates.

“The lower inflation readings over the second half of last year are welcome, but we will need to see continuing evidence to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably to our goal,” Powell said.

Powell further said that the US economy has made some good progress, with inflation easing from its highs without signs of increased unemployment. Still, there is work to be done, he said.

“Inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain,” Powell said, according to CNBC. “I want to assure the American people we are fully committed to returning inflation to our two per cent goal,”

Fed meet live: Responding to the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday, Rajeev Sharma, managing director of fixed income at Key Bank, said the Fed is likely “to wait a bit longer to cut rates than the market is currently anticipating.’’

Prior to the meeting on Wednesday, the majority of investors anticipated a rate reduction at the central bank’s upcoming meeting in March. However, as of right now, Sharma projects that “the first rate cut would not come before May.”

Fed meet live: “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace,” the today’s statement reads.

“Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low,” it continues, before adding the line likely to dominate news coverage: “Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.” Click here

Fed meet live: It’s still unclear if the Federal Reserve will move to cut rates in March, said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates at BMO, after Fed’s Wednesday’s statement.

“While this doesn’t take a March cut off the table completely, it also isn’t an endorsement of a move on March 20th,” he said in a note.

Fed meet live: The three major US stock indexes were already weighed down by weakness in tech and tech-adjacent megacap stocks the day after disappointing Alphabet results. All three turned lower ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Q&A session, expected to begin shortly. At 02:10 p.m. (EST), the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 61.72 points, or 0.16 per cent , to 38,405.59, the S&P 500 lost 46.13 points, or 0.94 per cent, to 4,878.84 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 222.88 points, or 1.44 per cent, to 15,287.02.

Fed meet live: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the fourth straight meeting and signaled its openness to cutting them, though not necessarily right away.

In a statement issued after their two-day meeting, Fed officials dropped their previous assertion that a rate hike was possible and instead adopted a more even-handed assessment of the future policy path.

“The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance,” the central bank’s policy-making Federal Open Market Committee said Wednesday.

“In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

But in a sign that officials are not in a rush to reduce rates, the FOMC also said it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward two per cent.”

The dollar index pared losses Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and dropped a longstanding reference to possible further hikes in borrowing costs. The dollar index was last flat on the day at 103.39. The euro was last down 0.16 per cent on the day at $1.08275. The greenback pared losses against the yen and was last down 0.66 per cent on the day at 146.72 yen.

According to David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, the Federal Reserve has laid the groundwork for rate reductions beginning in June.

“It sounds to me like June, September, December is what they are thinking — three rate cuts this year —provided the economy keeps growing,” Kelly said in an interview with CNBC following the release of the Federal Reserve’s statement.

“There doesn’t seem to be, at the moment, a sign that the U.S. economy is going to keel over and fall into recession any time soon,” he added.

Fed meet live: Indicating that they are not yet prepared to lower interest rates, policymakers believe that a move won’t be appropriate until they have greater confidence that “inflation is moving sustainably toward two percent” at their next meeting in March.

With a maximum of $60 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities sliding off the balance sheet each month, the Fed continues its quantitative tightening program. The statement makes no mention of any changes to the program.

Fed meet live: The Fed has a dual mandate to keep both inflation and the unemployment rate low, and has been heavily focused on bringing high inflation back down towards its long-term target of two per cent. The US central bank confirmed in a statement that it was holding its benchmark lending rate steady at a 23-year high between 5.25 per cent and 5.50 per cent.

Fed meet live: Central bank policymakers said that they aren’t yet ready to start cutting rates, according to their two-day meeting statement.

“The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” the statement said.

Few meet live: The Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged in January. It’s the fourth consecutive time that the central bank has decided to keep steady on rate policy.

The fed funds rate remains at a range of 5.25% to 5.5% as the US central bank confirmed said it is unlikely to start cutting rates without “greater confidence” that inflation is moving “sustainably” towards its long-term two per cent target. The central bank added that the “risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.”

Fed meet live: A recent study conducted by Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators revealed that forecasters anticipate 1.6% growth in the GDP this year.

That kind of growth likely means the Fed will have achieved a coveted “soft landing” by restraining the economy enough to tamp down inflation without triggering a recession.

Fed meet live: The Federal Open Market Committee will next meet on March 19 and 20.

Here are all of the upcoming Fed meetings planned for 2024

March 19-20

April 30- May 1

June 11-12

July 30-31

Sept. 17-18

Nov. 6-7

Dec. 17-18

Fed meet live: Experts predict that credit card interest rates won’t drop much in the upcoming months because banks won’t want to lower them.

There is a record $1.08 trillion in credit card debt, and the rate of delinquency has been increasing. Delinquencies might turn into charge-offs, which banks take as losses, if the economy contracts enough.

Fed meet live: Even though Microsoft exceeded expectations in terms of revenue and profit, the company saw a 1.5% decline. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives went on to refer to the quarterly report as “a masterpiece that should be hung in the Louvre.”

Another company in the group known as the “Magnificent Seven,” Tesla, fell 1%. Just one day prior, a Delaware judge declared that Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, was not entitled to the historic remuneration package worth over $55 billion that the company had given him.

Fed meet live: Wednesday saw the tech-heavy Nasdaq fall to levels not seen in more than a week as Alphabet’s predictions for growing AI expenses hurt most megacap and chip firms ahead of an important Federal Reserve policy announcement that was anticipated later in the day.

The parent company of Google fell 6.1%, causing the S&P 500 communication services sector to drop by 3%. The company’s decline was caused by lower-than-expected holiday-season advertising sales and higher-than-expected spending on artificial intelligence, Reuters reported.

Microsoft’s positive quarterly results were overshadowed by a 1.3% decline in shares as it predicted increased costs for the development of new AI features.

Fed meet live: The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is slightly over 4%, significantly below its peak of nearly 5% last autumn, and the stock market is almost at a record high. The 10-year yield is usually followed by average long-term mortgage rates, which have decreased from approximately 8% to roughly 6.7%.

“It seems that the Fed is not in a rush to cut rates; there’s no need to really rush into it,” stated Subadra Rajappa, the head of US rates strategy at the French bank Société Générale. “For this reason, the markets began to doubt the rate cut in March.”

Fed meet live: Although the Fed is expected to keep rates constant during its most recent policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, it has indicated that it plans to revers course and lower rates three times this year. The first rate cut has been expected by financial markets since March, but if the labor market continues to improve, the Fed’s officials may be reluctant to take action until the middle of the year.

“These data — which show demand for workers remains robust — do not support imminent rate cuts,’’ said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, as per AP. “They support a cautious approach going forward, so that policymakers can be sure that inflation” will reach their 2% target.

Fed meet live: Prior to Wednesday’s opening, the U.S. stock markets were trending in different directions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average beating other indexes because of its comparatively low exposure to technology. The focus now shifts to the monetary policy decision made today by the Federal Reserve.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 53 points, or 0.1%, following the index’s record-breaking closing high on Tuesday. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.2% while those on the S&P 500 fell 0.1%.

Following the release of their quarterly reports on Tuesday, Microsoft remained flat while Google’s parent company Alphabet dipped in after hours trade, suggesting that the technology industry is about to take a hit.

Fed meet live: While the US Federal Reserve is likely to leave rates unchanged, analysts suggest to not expect many concrete clues on shifts in the central bank’s policy stance in its post-meeting statement and in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks.

deVere Group’s chief executive Nigel Green says: “Wall Street and markets around the world will, of course, be looking for clues on shifts in the central bank’s policy stance in Chair Powell’s remarks after the meeting.”

“However, investors should not expect too many hints. We expect he will remain cautious on the future of potential rate cuts and want to see more evidence that the battle against inflation is won.”

‘’He’ll want to avoid cutting them prematurely and face the threat of inflation rising again. He will almost certainly push back against those market expectations of five cuts this year,” said Green.

Fed meet live: Wall Street continues to bet on a rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting on March 19–20, even if no rate cut announced today.

Nearly 62% of investors still anticipate a rate decrease in March, according to the CME FedWatch tool (though the share has been declining). Even after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller hinted this month that the Fed “would take our time to make sure we do this right,” the expectation still stands.

Additionally, the economy is still showing signs of strength. From October through December, the economy grew at a fairly strong annual rate of 3.3%. Unexpectedly high retail sales were also recorded in December.

Fed meet live: In its fiscal first quarter, Starbucks reported record revenue, but the company cut its sales forecast for the remainder of the year due to declining consumer spending in China and other areas.

The giant coffee firm in Seattle announced on Tuesday that, contrary to its earlier November projection of a 10-12% increase, it now anticipates revenue growth in its current fiscal year to be between 7% and 10%. Global same-store sales, or sales at stores that have been open for a minimum of a year, are predicted to increase by 4% to 6%, as opposed to the previous range of 5-7%.

Fed meet live: Losses in oil and Vodafone stocks caused the UK’s blue-chip index to decline on Wednesday, Reuters reported.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 fell 0.5%, as giants Shell and BP contributed to the index’s 1% decline, which was a result of declining oil prices.

Concerns about China’s faltering economy added to the pessimism as investors reduced their expectations on rapid interest rate reduction from major central banks, resulting in UK stocks posting their worst month since October.

Fed meet live: Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, in 2019, the Fed lowered interest rates. In July of that year, the first of three cutbacks was announced.

Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America Securities, said this year’s rate cuts may be “different than any other time”, adding that the Fed would make a cut because inflation has approached the central bank’s 2% target.

Fed meet live: Oil prices fell on Wednesday, pressured by low economic activity in leading crude importer China and a surprise build in US crude inventories as oil producers ramped up output after following frigid weather earlier this month.

The US Energy Information Administration’s report revealed that weekly oil inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week, which put further pressure on prices. The March contract for Brent crude, which expires today, dropped 78 cents, or almost 0.9%, to $82.09 per barrel.

At $81.50, the more actively traded April contract saw a $1.00 decrease, or roughly 1.2%, in value. US West Texas Intermediate oil futures dropped $99, or 1.3 percent, to settle at $76.83. Reuters reports that early in the day, both benchmarks dropped by more than $1 per barrel.

Fed meet live: Reduced rates might “inject activity into the currently sluggish mortgage origination market,” according to Michele Raneri, vice president of TransUnion’s US research and consulting.

“Since the 2020-2021 dip in 30-year mortgage rates spurred an uptick in home purchase activity, there are many potential homebuyers on the sidelines waiting for meaningful rate reductions before making a purchase,” she said in a note on Tuesday, as per CNN.

Fed meet live: A broad measure of labor costs in the US cooled by more than anticipated, providing the Federal Reserve with additional leeway to lower interest rates this year as inflation pressures continue to ease.

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data issued on Wednesday, the employment cost index—which tracks pay and benefits—grew by 0.9% in the fourth quarter, the least amount of growth since 2021, following a 1.1% increase in the previous three months.

“With labor productivity climbing 1.5% to 2.0% in recent quarters, this pace of compensation growth is consistent with the Fed’s inflation objectives,” Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, said in a note as per Reuters. “At this point, the longer the Fed waits, the more they become a source of downside risk to the economic outlook.”

Fed meet live: The chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Sherrod Brown, urged Fed Chair Powell in a letter dated Tuesday to lower interest rates “early this year.”

“It is your responsibility to set monetary policy that puts our country on a trajectory of both balanced growth and economic opportunity. Working families and small businesses have too much to lose if the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates,” Brown said in the letter.

“It is increasingly evident that restrictive monetary policy is no longer the right tool for combating inflation.”

Brown’s letter was received a few days after Senator Elizabeth Warren criticised the Federal Reserve for exacerbating the state of house affordability.

Warren voiced concern about how “astronomical” mortgage rates have made a dire situation worse in a letter to Powell on Sunday. She also encouraged Fed officials to begin reducing borrowing prices.

Fed meet live: As investors awaited news from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policymaking committee, Wall Street opened mixed on Wednesday.

At the opening bell on Wednesday, the Dow increased by 73 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.8% while the S&P 500 dropped by 0.4%.

Following the release of the tech giants’ corporate results for the fourth quarter of 2023, Microsoft’s stock increased by 0.8% and shares of Alphabet, the parent company of Google, opened 5.6% down. Although Google’s ad income was less than anticipated, both businesses exceeded Wall Street’s projections.

Fed meet live: Euro zone government bonds rallied sharply on Wednesday, sending German yields on their biggest one-day slide in four months, after soft data from both sides of the Atlantic supported the notion that interest rates are about to decline.

US data on wage growth and private-sector employment both undershot expectations, which supercharged a rally in short-dated Treasuries that fed into a fresh burst lower for European yields in afternoon trading.

With its steepest daily decline since late September, the benchmark 10-year Bund yield fell as far as 11.9 basis points. The yield is expected to climb for the first time since September.

Fed Meet live: Gold climbed on Wednesday and was on course to end its three-month winning streak as markets await Fed’s decision.

US gold futures increased 0.7% to $2,044.90, while spot gold increased by 0.4% to $2,045.69 per ounce. As speculators reduced their expectations on a March start to US rate reduction, gold fell 0.8% so far this month after hitting a record high in December, according to news agency Reuters.

Fed meet 2024 live: Employers will be under pressure if the economy is constrained and inflation keeps declining with high interest rates. This is because rising “real” rates would imply higher costs.

“If we continue to make surprising progress faster than was forecast on inflation, then we have to take that into account in determining the level of restrictiveness,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a recent interview with CNBC.

Fed meet 2024 live: The markets anticipate that later this year, the Fed and other major central banks will be able to reduce interest rates. Trading.Biz financial analyst Saqib Iqbal thinks that the currency wouldn’t increase significantly in response to any Fed remarks viewed as less than dovish. Seasonal considerations combined with tonight’s stance could sustain the dollar bid. Based on a bottom found in the final week of 2023, the DXY can rise to 104.00 and above, indicating a 3.4% gain in 2024, according to Iqbal.

Fed meet 2024 live: In a prediction presented on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed its hope of a soft landing for the US. The IMF predicted that the US will grow at an annual pace of 2.5% this year, down from last year but with an improved outlook from a previous prediction.

Fed meet 2024 live: Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist at Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers underscored that the recent trends indicate a significant softening of inflation in the US, fueling market expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as March 2024.

However, considering the stronger-than-expected US economic growth, the robust state of the labour market, and the risk of reigniting inflation by prematurely initiating rate cuts, a rate reduction in March seems unlikely, Hajra said.

Even with the looming possibility of the US economy entering a recession in the latter half of 2024, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to exercise caution, aiming to maintain stable inflation expectations in the US, Hajra added.

Fed meet 2024 live: Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that the central bank expects to cut rates this year, but it won’t be “rushed” to make the decision soon.

“The data we have received the last few months is allowing the Committee to consider cutting the policy rate in 2024. However, concerns about the sustainability of these data trends requires changes in the path of policy to be carefully calibrated and not rushed. In the end, I am feeling more confident that the economy can continue along its current trajectory,” he said in a statement.

Monetary policy, which is set by the Fed, is the single most significant factor influencing the value of the US dollar. The two main goals of the Fed are to promote full employment and stabilize prices by controlling inflation. Interest rate adjustments are its main weapon for achieving these two objectives.

The Fed will raise rates when inflation exceeds its 2% objective and prices are growing too quickly, which will strengthen the value of the USD. This weakens the value of the greenback because the Fed may cut interest rates when inflation drops below 2% or the unemployment rate rises too high.